05.16.20
The COVID-19 has been with us since the beginning of the year, first in China and Southeast Asia (especially Korea and Thailand), then quickly leapfrogging over to Italy, France, Iran, and 177 countries all together. It has affected four million people and killed over one quarter million worldwide. In the US it took only two months for our first reported death and then since March, quarantines and masks and isolation has been with us. Some countries are seeing light at the end of the tunnel and are starting to open things up, first with parks and restaurants and then soon, national borders.
In the European Union it appears that Croatia is leading the EU and trying to open up borders sooner than others may be ready. Reports show that they could be relaxing borders by the end of May and they “hope” that they can recover some of their lost tourism business and look for “about 30% of what it was last year.” Other countries are not quite on board, including Italy, who stands firm on NOT joining any large-scale border policy, and Slovenia to the north, who is also skeptical. But Croatia is in discussion with German tourism agencies and working on details to bring the visitors back. Of course, discussions with an industry is not necessarily the same as coming to agreement with the country itself, but so far all parties are moving forward. Right now, some countries are allowing citizens to return, but still imposing a 14-day quarantine. No home citizenship, no entry, though…
I have replied to several media inquiries about “the future of travel,” and though no one has a clear crystal ball, here are my thoughts.
Domestic travel within the US will hopefully see progress quicker than international travel, and I think the odds of booking and making a flight between June and September is about 50/50. Mind you, so much is unpredictable. If there is a resurgence and the number of illnesses increase, that could change that forecast pretty quickly. International flights I think should wait until Q4 of the year, ie, October and beyond. Any flight before then is risky since leaving the US is one thing, but arriving in another country and having their approval to land, is another. Delta Airlines (who flew us from Ohio to Cancun in March as the ONLY passengers!) is bearish on overseas travel and says they are retiring their entire Boeing 777 line (only 18 aircraft) to decrease their daily cash flow drain (currently DOWN TO $50 million a DAY). So the problem of overseas travel—and the prices—will surely be affected by less options.
The Health Certification form issue has come up before and some countries already require it. There are lots of questions as to who the certifying body is and how long is it good for. Imagine having to visit a doctor or hospital within 48 hours of a flight and add that burden to everything else.
If you can drive to your summer vacation spots, or even take a train(!) I believe that would be your best bet. If you can book international flights early enough, while prices are down and cancellation/ modification restrictions are lenient, I would choose a departure and return date and put it in Google travel alerts so you can see trends. A flight that I am looking at from Orange County (CA) to Maui in September has varied from less than $300 to over $800.
When will things return to normal?
The question of “When will things return to normal?” is anyone’s guess. There are so many people whose plans have been altered due to this pandemic, that is heartbreaking. As for us, when borders open that will change our options as well and we’ll continue to take it one day at a time.
