07.11.20

Being a travel blogger these days is as difficult as being a TRAVELER! Europe is closed to Americans, and most of Central and South America (Our “backyard”) is off limits to NON citizens of those countries. Some will allow access, but the 14 day mandatory quarantine takes away much of my motivation, with not much to be gained. I remain positive and want to convey that optimism since I think that yes, eventually things will return to whatever they return to. I’m not calling anything “normal” anymore since that may be as dated a term as transistor radios and corded telephones.

I follow the world passport control and travel markets closely and there are some sobering facts that go beyond the deaths and sicknesses and inconveniences felt by almost everyone. From a financial standpoint this virus—not done yet—has devastated the aviation, travel and tourism markets.

What triggered this subject was an article that referenced how damaging the financial losses have been for different countries all over the world. These figures come from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), so I assume that they are 1) valid, 2) unbiased and 3) non-political, so let’s dig in.

They use March 2020 as the “start” of the downturn and if things went back to normal NOW, after four months, they calculate the loss at about $1.2 TRILLION, which is about 1.5 percent of the GLOBAL GDP. Since THAT date is here and almost gone, losses will be greater than those numbers. Their next benchmark is eight months, which means that by October things would return to normal; that would result in a $2.2 trillion loss, or 2.8 percent of GDP.

That would be an optimistic notion and one that could be possible if things started improving now. The EU is open to other EU citizens and much of the world, but if problems return those doors may close again, too. Per the UNCTAD, their worst case scenario, 12 months of downturn, would amount to a loss of $3.3 trillion, which is still a lot of money in anyone’s currency.

Their report also shares the three most affected countries, ie, the ones with the largest losses as a percentage of GDP. Tied at numbers one and two are Thailand and Jamaica, which are as different as two countries can be. Number three and four are Croatia and Portugal, which I’ll get to in a moment.

We were in Thailand for much of the first quarter and discovered that Bangkok was the most visited city in the world, with over 20 million annual visitors. That surpasses Rome and London and Paris and any other tourist magnet you can think of. And Bangkok gets most of those visitors from China, so that tide was turned very early. The loss of visitors created its’ own downward spiral among the millions of taxi drivers, hotel operators, and all the other tourist-centric businesses. Even while we were there, in January and February, there were already hotels closing and on the market for sale, ditto many high rise residences.

 

On the other side of the world, the tiny island of Jamaica, just 4200 sq. miles in area, lives on tourism which amounts to over one-third of their GDP. After tourism, agriculture drives their economy, primarily from sugar cane. Turning off the tourism flow to that nation is a serious blow. I was there for a week in March, 2015 and it was a magical experience.

 

Croatia and Portugal at numbers three and four hit me personally since those were the two countries we planned to bounce back and forth between when we considered living in Europe full time. Croatia is NON-Schengen so can be used to reset the visa clock from the European Union.

There are lessons to be learned, along with a perspective on how significant the COVID-19 has impacted the world. Each of us has felt it in our ways, and businesses, big and small, and countries, are no different.

#croatia, #portugal, #thailand, #jamaica, #travel, #EU